好运娱乐场有hg平台么，（思进注：相关性与因果关系是人类普遍混淆的，特别在缺乏科学精神的人群中，如有些古人就以为公鸡叫太阳升是因果关系，将相关性的公鸡叫太阳升，误以为是因果关系，以为太阳公公是被公鸡叫出来的。在金融市场中，误读相关性与因果关系是非常普遍的。特转发老友、前美联储cro理查德·罗伯茨近日大作《inflation — watch what you wish for》，就是谈这个问题的，和大家分享。如果看不懂英文的话，请用百度翻译；另强烈推荐由我策划、理查德所著刚出版的新书《手持柴火的灭火人：美联储》）
inflation — watch what you wish forby rick roberts
i often take a four-mile run at sunrise. it reconnects me with the natural surroundings of new york, making the day’s certain headaches more bearable. everything seems fresher and more beautiful — the air is free of morning traffic pollution, trees glisten with due, snow actually sparkles. shit, even the rats seem friendly at that hour.
a creature of habit, i have run the same route for years. moreover, at roughly the same time each morning, i pass an elderly woman on the front steps of her duplex exclaiming “let my home be safe from tigers!”
recently, i stopped directly in front of the lady to tie my shoelace. while there, i decided to ask about her daily ritual.
“what’s that all about, ma’am? there isn’t a tiger within a thousand miles of here,” i sheepishly inquired.
she replied, “and now you know why. my daily yell works!!” to which i smiled and restarted my jog.
correlation vs causation
the woman was confusing correlation and causation – a mistake made by many self-proclaimed economic and financial landscape experts. just because a correlation is evident, it doesn’t mean that a caused b. causation analysis requires rigorous and often tricky econometric testing, whereas correlation can often be identified via a simple dot plot of two variables.
the misguided search for inflation
since 2016, the fed has searched for signs of the strengthened inflation, to allow them to further tighten the monetary policy levers that they left loose for eight years. indeed, over the last year or so, the central bank seems to be grasping for something – anything – that might portend an increase in the economy’s overall level of prices.
of recent interest to me has been the chit-chat of wage increases being the gem that the bankers have been waiting for. one might think that pricey workers are now storming america and inflation is about to take off. finally.
the raw data certainly show that measures of wages and prices generally move together. as i recall, the intuition behind these rascals appearing hooked at the hip is that since labor costs are a large piece of a firm’s total production costs, rising wages will lead companies to pass the higher costs on to consumers. sounds logical –upward pressure on wages causes inflation, right?
wrong. there exists no empirical evidence that wages cause prices. those who argue causation leave unexplained how wages got high in the first place. re-read the above paragraph – it doesn’t explain the wage piece.
here are a few explanations that don’t fit into the causation spiel. what if an increase in aggregate demand led firms to increase the prices of their products, and it was that increase that led workers to demand higher wages? or, what if wage increases were brought about by increased labor productivity? econ 101 grads will recall that this is unlikely to create inflationary pressures. ok, possibly the labor market is so tight that workers now regularly threaten employers with “pay-up or i’m walking” verbiage and their firms shell out the moola. but, that is quite different from assuming that the increased labor costs will be passed on to consumers — competitive free-markets have a way of impacting firm pricing decisions, you know. more likely is that firm profits will be squeezed and inflationary pressures will be minimal.
but, wait a second
hold on there, roberts. are you saying that the world’s central bank is confusing correlation and causation? aren’t these the elite of the elite thinkers?
elite they are. it is most likely that the good-guys are utilizing a taste of green-speak to assuage concerns of 1) stagflation or 2) an inability to identify economic structural problems because the clutter that fell from their experimental monetary policy wagon remains widely scattered across the landscape.
on top of their causation problem, the excessive zipr/lirp/qes policies seem to have caused havoc with the measurement and interrelationships of economic variables, including inflation. the federal reserve’s pressure to keep interest rates artificially low for such an extended period has created significant distortions throughout the economy, such that american’s have no idea of whether an asking price is a good or bad deal. as david stockman recently said, because of central banks there is no honest pricing of goods anywhere. speaking for myself, i simply don’t know what a gallon of gas or a six-pack of molson or a volvo x90 should cost.
take heed. the drive to find inflation and then brag about it is very dangerous, especially since post-crisis data are suspect. soundly convincing market participants that “hooray – inflation is finally here” may very well raise interest rates across the spectrum, particularly on the longer end. if i’m about to lend money to my pal for a term of 5 years, you better believe that i am going to charge her a higher rate of interest if i anticipate that inflation will lower my real-rate of return. the course of price increases over the term of the loan will determine the real financial benefits that i receive. and that is just my piddly loan.
however, given that we float in largely unchartered experimental monetary policy waters, the consequences may be much different than the smart folks expect.
think of the impacted corporations and credit card issuers and mortgage banks and investors. then consider the record levels of debt that saddle america. too, there is no need for you to forget all of the zombies that have been kept alive by hanging on to the fed’s qe/zirp lifeline. by the way, those zombies employed workers who otherwise may have been retooled with an improved skill set for today’s economy. while you are at it, toss into the mix legitimate fears of one or more frothy asset bubbles bursting. let’s not forget about a generally misguided fiscal policy and blossoming deficits. and — just for grins — count on a presidential tweet or two that causes political turmoil.
and i didn’t even get to the part of how our central bank is underestimating inflation anyway. in my judgment, to find out the degree of forthcoming price pressures, there is no need for price indices, especially the ones that exist today; all that is required is a review of the money supply’s rate of growth.
that would argue for a 10-year bench of 450-500 basis points before the market again sees 250. that’s right: 4.5-5.0% before 2.5%. and a deep recession.
but, scary things happen when you borrow from your future to live better now. first and foremost is the need to pay the piper for an eight-year loan that should have been 24 months.